— Environmental Forecasting
Seven Days of
Environmental Context
A forecaster for planning around the environment. It combines weather, space-weather and air-quality inputs into six readiness domains over a seven-day horizon, shows how much each factor contributes, and is explicit about how strong the underlying evidence is.
The Problem
Environment Matters, but Claims Are Often Overstated
- Tier A5 38%
- Tier A* (pollen)1 8%
- Tier B5 38%
- Tier C2 15%
From the app's tier table. A: thermal, daylength/season, air quality, circadian phase, clock change. B: pressure change, humidity, wind, precipitation, sunshine. C: geomagnetic, moon (sleep only). Tier D claims are excluded.
| Item | Value (factors) |
|---|---|
| Tier A | 5 |
| Tier A* (pollen) | 1 |
| Tier B | 5 |
| Tier C | 2 |
Opaque Scores
Many wellness dashboards give a single number with no way to see what produced it.
Mixed Evidence
Well-established influences such as temperature and air quality are blended with contested ones as though they were equal.
No Personal Feedback
Generic forecasts cannot learn from how your own days actually went.
The Solution
Transparent Scoring, Personal Calibration
Each domain is assembled from weighted factors, with evidence tiers controlling how much each factor can contribute.
Six Domains
Cognitive Work, Decision Quality, Physical Energy, Mood & Social, Sleep Outlook and Comfort, each with its own factor weights.
Evidence Dial
Conservative keeps Tier A factors only; Balanced uses every factor at literature-calibrated confidence; Exploratory raises the confidence of the geomagnetic and lunar factors, still capped well below Tier A. The dial changes weights only — no data is hidden.
Prime & Caution Windows
See the best and most cautionary hours in the week, with a Next Best peak hour and forecast-skill decay over time.
Sky & Location
Use your device location or search for any place, and view geomagnetic and solar conditions from public space-weather services.
Journal & Profile
Log a thirty-second check-in. After twenty-one entries the Profile tab tests, with rank correlation and bootstrap confidence intervals, which factors actually track your own ratings.
Exports
Export a PDF or PNG summary, a CSV of the data, or copy the report.
Architecture
From Location to Plan
Set Location & Date
Use your device location or search a place, and choose the report date and hour.
Pick the Evidence Level
Select Conservative, Balanced or Exploratory depending on how much weight you want to give less-established factors.
Read the Week
Review domain scores, factor contributions, prime and caution windows, and the Next Best hour.
Check In & Learn
Log how days went; after twenty-one entries, see which environmental factors actually move you.
By the Numbers
Inside the Platform
- Temperature (×1.00)
- Wind gusts (×1.25)
- Precipitation (×1.60)
Computed with the app's own constants and formula. Astronomy, clock-change and circadian factors carry no weather-skill term.
| Point | Temperature (×1.00) (σ (signal units)) | Wind gusts (×1.25) (σ (signal units)) | Precipitation (×1.60) (σ (signal units)) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 h | 0.06 | 0.075 | 0.096 |
| 12 h | 0.112 | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| 24 h | 0.156 | 0.195 | 0.25 |
| 36 h | 0.194 | 0.242 | 0.31 |
| 48 h | 0.225 | 0.282 | 0.361 |
| 60 h | 0.252 | 0.315 | 0.404 |
| 72 h | 0.275 | 0.344 | 0.44 |
| 84 h | 0.294 | 0.368 | 0.471 |
| 96 h | 0.31 | 0.388 | 0.497 |
| 108 h | 0.324 | 0.405 | 0.519 |
| 120 h | 0.336 | 0.42 | 0.537 |
| 132 h | 0.346 | 0.432 | 0.553 |
| 144 h | 0.354 | 0.442 | 0.566 |
| 156 h | 0.361 | 0.451 | 0.578 |
| 168 h | 0.367 | 0.459 | 0.587 |
Row THERM of the app's weight matrix W[factor][domain]. Each domain score normalises by the weights of the factors that have data, scaled by the evidence dial.
| Item | Value (weight) |
|---|---|
| Cognitive Work | 0.18 |
| Decision Quality | 0.22 |
| Physical Energy | 0.28 |
| Mood & Social | 0.14 |
| Sleep Outlook | 0.26 |
| Comfort | 0.2 |
What This Forecast Is
HELIOS-BIOFIELD estimates environmental conditions that may bear on how a day goes. It never predicts how you will feel, and it is not medical advice. Scores are centred near 50, tiered by evidence strength, and some factors are labelled as contested. All computation happens on your device.
At a Glance
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Readiness domains | 6: Cognitive Work, Decision Quality, Physical Energy, Mood & Social, Sleep Outlook, Comfort |
| Environmental factors | 13, in evidence tiers A, A*, B and C (Tier D claims excluded) |
| Forecast grid | 217 hourly points, from −48 h to +168 h (7 days) |
| Evidence dial | Conservative (Tier A only), Balanced (default), Exploratory |
| Personal calibration | From 21 check-ins: Spearman, 500 permutations, 500 bootstraps, FDR q = 0.10 |
| Data sources | Open-Meteo forecast & air quality, NOAA SWPC, GFZ Potsdam (Kp failover), SILSO |
| Exports | PDF report, PNG chart, CSV data, copied text summary |
| Self-test harness | 574 assertions via ?selftest=1 (574 passed, 0 failed in our run) |
Taken from the app's constants, Theory and Method tabs, and its built-in self-test.
Transparency
Evidence & Data Notes
Not Medical Advice
The forecast is context, not a diagnosis, a treatment or a prediction of personal experience.
Contested Factors Marked
Factors with weaker evidence sit in lower tiers and can be reduced or excluded with the evidence dial.
Live Data, Cached
Weather, space-weather and air-quality data are fetched from public services and cached for short periods; an internet connection is required.
Who Benefits
Built for People Who Like to Plan With Context
Self-Trackers
Compare daily check-ins against a transparent environmental baseline.
Planners & Coaches
Schedule demanding work or recovery with an explicit view of the week ahead.
Outdoor Professionals
See weather, air-quality and sky conditions together for a chosen place and hour.
Licensing
Flexible Plans
for Every Scale
Professional
Contact for Pricing
Full platform access for individual practitioners and researchers.
Institution
Contact for Pricing
Multi-seat licensing for teams, departments, and organisations.
Enterprise
Custom
White-label deployment with custom integrations and dedicated support.
Related Platforms
Explore Further
Contact
Ready to Get Started?
Reach out to discuss licensing options, schedule a demonstration, or request a custom integration proposal.
Email: [click to reveal]